Monumentalist

DATE: 14 January 2026 TO: Investment Committee / Retail Desk FROM: Senior Equity Analyst SUBJECT: Investment Analysis â GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A. (JSE: GTC)

Step 1: Data Gathering & Source Verification

Reporting Periods Used:

Latest Interim Results: Unaudited results for the nine months ended 30 September 2025 (Released 01 December 2025).
[Link to SENS/File] https://www.gtcgroup.com/en/investors/results-reports-and-announcements
Latest Annual Financial Statements: Annual Report for the year ended 31 December 2024 (Released 29 April 2025).
[Link to Report] https://www.gtcgroup.com/media/files/annual-report-2024.pdf

Recent SENS Activity (L12M):

01 Dec 2025: Reviewed 9M 2025 Results (Stable cash flow, revaluation losses).
29 May 2025: Recommendation regarding the non-payment of dividends for the 2024 financial year.
29 Apr 2025: Release of Audited 2024 Financial Results.

Step 2: Metric Extraction

| Metric | Value | Notes | | --- | --- | --- | | Market Cap | ~R17.2 Billion | Based on ~574m shares in issue and the last traded JSE price. Warning: Market Cap is theoretical due to lack of liquidity. | | Share Price | R30.00 | Critical Flag: Last traded price on JSE. This price appears "stale" and disconnected from the primary listing in Warsaw (WSE: GTC), which trades closer to ~PLN 3.20 (approx. R15.00), implying the JSE price is artificially high due to zero volume. | | Dividend Yield (L12M) | 0.0% | The company recommended non-payment of a dividend for the 2024 financial year (May 2025 announcement). The last payout occurred in September 2024 (outside the L12M window). | | Liquidity Check | FAIL (Illiquid) | High Risk. Average daily value traded is effectively Zero. There have been days/weeks with no trades on the JSE line. Exiting a position here is nearly impossible. | | P/E Ratio | N/A (Loss) | The company reported a net loss for the 9M 2025 period due to non-cash revaluation write-downs on its property portfolio. | | Net Asset Value (NAV) | ~R44.60 | Derived from EPRA NTA of â¬2.23 per share (Sept 2025). Converted at ~R20.00/EUR. The stock trades at a deep discount to NAV on paper. |

Step 3: Operational & Strategic Analysis

1. Business Overview Globe Trade Centre S.A. (GTC) is a commercial real estate developer and investor focused on Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).

Geography: Primary markets are Poland (approx. 40%+ of portfolio), Hungary, Bucharest, Belgrade, Zagreb, and Sofia.
Asset Class: Operates Class A office buildings and retail shopping centers. It earns revenue through rental income and capital appreciation upon asset disposal.

2. Performance Trend (9M 2025 vs 9M 2024)

Operational Strength: Operationally, the business is stable. Rental revenues rose ~9% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, driven by indexation (inflation-linked rent hikes) and solid leasing activity in the retail segment (occupancy held firm at ~86%).
Valuation Weakness: Despite operational growth, the "bottom line" is red. Higher interest rates have forced capitalization yields to expand, leading to significant non-cash revaluation losses (write-downs) on the property values. This is a sector-wide trend in Europe, erasing paper profits.

3. Sector Context (Macro Factor) Eurozone Yield Expansion. GTC's assets are valued in Euros. The high interest rate environment in the Eurozone (and specifically the cost of debt in CEE markets) has increased the cost of refinancing. Real estate companies are currently prioritizing deleveraging (selling assets to pay down debt) over dividends to protect their LTV (Loan-to-Value) covenants.

Step 4: The Verdict

Bull Case: Deep Discount to NAV The primary argument for GTC is the valuation gap. Trading at ~R30.00 (and significantly lower on the Warsaw line), the stock is priced well below its intrinsic Net Asset Value (EPRA NTA) of ~â¬2.23 (~R44.60). If interest rates in Europe fall and property values stabilize, the share price has significant room to re-rate upwards toward its book value.

Bear Case: The "JSE Ghost Town" & Refinancing Risk The JSE listing is dysfunctional. With zero liquidity, South African investors are essentially trapped. Furthermore, the company carries a substantial debt load in a "higher-for-longer" rate environment. The suspension of the dividend in 2025 signals that cash preservation is the priority, leaving shareholders with no yield while they wait for a turnaround.

Fair Value Estimate R35.00 - R40.00 Based on a 20% discount to reported EPRA NTA (â¬2.23).

Final Rating: SELL / AVOID (JSE Listing)

Why? While the underlying European business has value, the JSE instrument is uninvestable due to lack of liquidity. You cannot safely enter or exit a meaningful position.
Note: If you have access to the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), the primary listing offers better liquidity and a more realistic price discovery, potentially warranting a "Hold/Speculative Buy" there. On the JSE, it is a value trap.