Monumentalist

DATE: 14 January 2026 TO: Investment Committee / Retail Desk FROM: Senior Equity Analyst SUBJECT: Investment Analysis â GREENCOAT RENEWABLES PLC (JSE: GCT)

Step 1: Data Gathering & Source Verification

Important Note on Listing: Greencoat Renewables PLC is an Irish-domiciled company with its primary listing on Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. It has a secondary inward listing on the JSE AltX board (Code: GCT). The analysis below covers the primary entity but flags specific risks regarding the local JSE instrument.

Reporting Periods Used:

Latest Trading & NAV Update: Q3 2025 Net Asset Value Statement (Released 30 October 2025).
Source Link (SENS)
Latest Interim Results: Half-Year Report for the six months ended 30 June 2025 (Released 15 September 2025).
Source File (PDF)
Latest Annual Financial Statements: Annual Report for the year ended 31 December 2024 (Released March 2025).

Recent SENS Activity (L12M):

30 Oct 2025: Q3 Net Asset Value (NAV) update & Dividend Declaration.
15 Sep 2025: H1 Interim Results (Wind resource challenges noted).
29 Jul 2025: Q2 NAV update.

Step 2: Metric Extraction

| Metric | Value | Notes | | --- | --- | --- | | Market Cap | ~R16.9 Billion | Converted from â¬855m. (Primary listing drives value). | | Share Price (JSE) | R13.75 | Note: This price is often stale due to low volume. The primary ticker (GRP) trades around â¬0.72. | | Dividend Yield (Fwd) | ~9.5% (Euro) | Very High. The company targets a dividend of 6.81 Euro cents for FY2025. At the current Euro share price (~â¬0.72), this offers a massive hard-currency yield. | | Liquidity Check | FAIL (JSE Only) | High Risk. The JSE line (GCT) is illiquid with days of zero trade. While the stock is liquid in Dublin/London, South African investors on the JSE face significant execution risk (wide bid-offer spreads). | | P/E Ratio | N/A | Valued on NAV and Dividend Yield, not Earnings Per Share (which fluctuate with non-cash asset revaluations). | | Net Asset Value | ~R20.00 | Deep Discount. Reported NAV is 101.5 Euro cents (Q3 2025). At an exchange rate of ~R19.70/â¬, the intrinsic value is over R20.00. The stock trades at a ~25-30% discount to NAV. |

Step 3: Operational & Strategic Analysis

1. Business Overview Greencoat Renewables is a specialist owner and operator of renewable energy infrastructure.

Assets: A portfolio of onshore/offshore wind farms and solar assets across Europe (Ireland, France, Sweden, Spain, Germany).
Model: They buy operating assets (brownfield) with long-term government-backed revenue contracts (PPAs) to generate predictable cash flow, which is paid out as dividends.

2. Performance Trend (H1 2025 vs H1 2024)

Trend: Resilience amidst Headwinds.
Generation Issues: The "Wind Drought" has been a major factor. H1 2025 wind speeds were 15% below budget, significantly reducing energy generation.
NAV Impact: Due to lower generation forecasts, the NAV per share was written down from 110.5c (Dec 2024) to 101.0c (June 2025).
Cash Flow: Despite the weather, cash generation covered the dividend by 1.8x, proving the robustness of the model even in bad years. They also successfully sold a portfolio of Irish assets at a premium to book value, proving that their NAV valuations are realistic.

3. Sector Context (Macro Factor) Eurozone Rates & Yield Compression. Renewable funds act like "bond proxies." When Euro interest rates were high, a 6% dividend yield wasn't attractive. Now that the ECB is cutting rates (2025 cycle), Greencoat's 9.5% yield becomes extremely attractive relative to European government bonds. The primary macro driver here is the spread between the dividend yield and the risk-free rate.

Step 4: The Verdict

Bull Case: The "Hard Currency" Yield Play This is a rare opportunity to buy Euro income at a discount. You are effectively buying a portfolio of Euro-generating wind farms for 70 cents on the Euro. The dividend yield of ~9.5% is covered by cash flow, and the discount to NAV provides a buffer. As Euro rates fall, this yield should force the share price higher (yield compression).

Bear Case: Weather Risk & The "JSE Trap" Fundamentally, if the wind doesn't blow, they make less money. The 2025 "wind drought" highlights this operational risk.

. Structurally, for a South African investor, the JSE line is dangerous. If you need to sell R1m worth of stock quickly, you might crush the local price because there are no buyers on the JSE side.

Fair Value Estimate R17.50 â R19.00 Targeting a narrower discount (10%) to the NAV of 101.5 Euro cents (~R20.00).

Final Rating: SPECULATIVE BUY

Why? The valuation is compelling (buying â¬1.00 of assets for â¬0.70). The yield is superb for an income portfolio.
Caveat: Do not buy this if you need immediate liquidity. This is a "buy and hold" for income. If possible, South African investors with offshore allowance should buy the primary listing (London/Dublin: GRP) to avoid the JSE liquidity issues.