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NASPERS LIMITED

NPN JSE Listed

Investment Analysis: Naspers Limited (JSE: NPN)

Date: 9 January 2026 Share Price: ~R1,118.76 (Post 5:1 Share Split effective Oct 2025) Analyst Role: Senior Equity Analyst, JSE

Step 1: Data Gathering & Source Verification

I have reviewed the most recent financial disclosures and relevant SENS announcements, noting the significant corporate action (share split) in late 2025.

  • Interim Results: Reviewed the Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Interim Financial Statements for the six months ended 30 September 2025 (Released 24 November 2025).
  • Annual Financial Statements: Reviewed the Consolidated Annual Financial Statements for the year ended 31 March 2025 (Released 23 June 2025).
  • SENS Activity (L12M): Key announcements include the 5-for-1 share split (October 2025), the acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway.com (declared unconditional October 2025), and weekly updates on the ongoing share repurchase program.

Data Sources:

  • Interim Results (Sept 2025): https://www.naspers.com/news-insights/regulatory-updates/2025/interim-results-announcement-for-the-six-months-ended-30-september-2025
  • Share Split Announcement: https://www.sharenet.co.za/v3/sens_display.php?tdate=20250915070500&seq=11

Step 2: Metric Extraction

Note: All per-share metrics reflect the 5:1 share split effective 1 October 2025.

| Metric | Value | Notes | | --- | --- | --- | | Market Cap | ~R877 Billion | The largest company on the JSE by weighting. | | Dividend Yield (L12M) | ~0.45% | Negligible. Paid ~508 cents per share in Dec 2025. The investment case is capital appreciation, not income. | | Liquidity Check | Highly Liquid | Average daily value traded >R500m. No liquidity risk for retail or institutional investors. | | P/E Ratio | ~19.5x | Based on trailing earnings. This is deceptively "cheap" for a tech holding company, primarily due to the discount to its underlying assets. | | Net Asset Value (NAV) | ~R1,890 per share | Critical Metric. As of 30 Sept 2025. The stock trades at a ~41% discount to its sum-of-the-parts value (primarily Tencent + Ecommerce portfolio). |

Step 3: Operational & Strategic Analysis

Business Overview Naspers is a global consumer internet group. Its primary value (approx. 70-80%) is derived from its stake in Tencent (China). The remainder ("The Rump") consists of a rapidly growing Ecommerce portfolio:

  • Food Delivery: iFood (LatAm), Swiggy (India), and the newly acquired Just Eat Takeaway (Europe).
  • Classifieds: OLX Group.
  • Payments & Fintech: PayU.

Performance Trend

  • Ecommerce Profitability: Achieved. The standout highlight of the FY25/26 period is the Ecommerce portfolio finally swinging to profitability. In the latest interims (Sept 2025), Ecommerce consolidated trading profit was positive, a major milestone after years of investment losses.
  • Growth: Consolidated revenue grew 20% to $4.1bn (Interim 2025), driven by iFood and the integration of new acquisitions.
  • Corporate Action: The group has aggressively simplified its structure. The removal of the cross-holding with Prosus and the recent 5:1 share split were designed to improve liquidity and reduce the discount.

Sector Context

  • China Exposure: The macro environment in China remains the single biggest driver of Naspers' share price via Tencent. Stimulus measures in China in late 2025 provided a floor for valuations, but regulatory unpredictability remains a risk.
  • Interest Rates: As global rates stabilize/cut in 2026, valuations for long-duration tech assets (like Delivery Hero/Swiggy) typically expand, supporting Naspers' NAV.

Step 4: The Verdict

Bull Case (Why Buy): The Discount & The Turnaround. You are buying Tencent at a massive ~40% discount, effectively getting the rest of the portfolio (iFood, OLX, Payments) for free. With the Ecommerce division now generating cash rather than burning it, the argument for a "conglomerate discount" weakens. The open-ended buyback program acts as a constant buyer of shares, structurally supporting the price.

Bear Case (Why Sell): Capital Allocation Risk. The massive acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway (completed Oct 2025) doubles down on the low-margin, highly competitive food delivery sector. If this integration fails or if competition (e.g., from Uber Eats) intensifies, Naspers may have incinerated billions in shareholder capital. Additionally, you cannot escape the geopolitical risk attached to Tencent.

Fair Value Estimate: R1,450 - R1,600 Targeting a narrowing of the discount to ~20-25%.

Final Rating: BUY The combination of the share buyback program, profitable ecommerce operations, and the excessive discount provides a strong margin of safety. The share split has also made the stock more accessible to retail traders, potentially improving local sentiment.

AI Generated Analysis Last Updated: 2026-01-14