Monumentalist

Investment Analysis: ALPHAMIN RESOURCES CORPORATION (JSE: APH)

Date: 9 January 2026 Analyst: [Gemini]

â ï¸ EXCHANGE WARNING: Alphamin is primary listed on the TSX Venture Exchange (Canada). The JSE listing is a secondary "AltX" listing. Trading volumes on the JSE are often thin, and dividends are declared in Canadian Dollars (CAD), meaning your final receipt in ZAR fluctuates with the exchange rate.

Step 1: Data Gathering & Source Verification

Reporting Period: Interim Financial Statements for the 3 and 9 months ended 30 September 2025 (Published 4 November 2025).
SENS Announcements Reviewed (L12M):
Fatality at Mpama South Underground Mine (5 Jan 2026) â A regrettable safety incident reported earlier this week.
Second Interim Dividend Declaration (4 Nov 2025).
Q3 2025 Operational Update (8 Oct 2025).
Change of Control: International Resources Holding (IRH) acquired a 56% controlling stake in July 2025, leading to board restructuring.

Step 2: Metric Extraction

Market Cap: R18.7 billion
Share Price: 1,480 cents (R14.80).
Dividend Yield (L12M): ~9.6%
Declarations:
Interim FY2025: CAD 0.07 (Declared Aug 2025).
Second Interim FY2025: CAD 0.04 (Declared Nov 2025).
Total: CAD 0.11 per share.
Currency Conversion: At an approximate rate of R13.00/CAD, this equates to ~R1.43 per share.
Liquidity Check: HIGH RISK / ILLIQUID
Average Daily Volume: Extremely erratic. Some days see volumes as low as ~5,000 shares (R75k value).
Flag: Despite its large market cap, the "free float" is tight (especially after the IRH buyout). Large buy/sell orders will move the price significantly.
P/E Ratio: 10.9x
Forward Outlook: With Mpama South ramping up and Tin prices holding >$30k, the forward P/E is likely closer to 6x - 7x.
Net Asset Value (NAV): N/A (Use P/NAV)
Price-to-Book: The stock trades at roughly 2.4x NAV. This premium is justified by the exceptionally high grade of the ore body (roughly 4x global average).

Step 3: Operational & Strategic Analysis

Business Overview Alphamin operates the Bisie Tin Complex in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It is one of the highest-grade tin mines in the world.

Mpama North: The original high-grade mine (producing ~12k tonnes/year).
Mpama South: The new expansion project, which is now fully operational and ramping up volumes.

Performance Trend (Q3 ended Sept 2025 vs Q2 2025)

Production: Surging. Tin production hit a record 5,190 tonnes in Q3 (up 26% from Q2).
Guidance: Raised. Management increased FY2025 production guidance to 18,000â18,500 tonnes.
Financials: Expanding. Q3 EBITDA rose 28% to US$96 million. The company is generating massive free cash flow, sufficient to self-fund expansion and pay aggressive dividends.

Sector Context

Macro Factor (Tin Squeeze): Supply Deficit. Tin is critical for soldering in electronics (AI chips, EVs, solar). Global supply is constrained due to export bans in Indonesia and mining suspensions in Myanmar. This has kept the Tin price elevated (~$36,000/tonne), acting as a massive tailwind for Alphamin.

Step 4: The Verdict

Bull Case (The Cash Machine): Grade is King. Alphamin processes ore at ~3-4% Tin grade (peers process at <1%). This makes them the lowest-cost producer globally. Even if Tin prices crash, they stay profitable. With Mpama South now online, volumes are growing just as Tin enters a structural supply deficit. The entry of IRH (UAE-based) as a majority shareholder potentially reduces geopolitical risk and improves access to capital.
Bear Case (The "DRC" Factor): Jurisdiction & Safety. The mine is in a volatile region of the DRC. The recent fatality (Jan 2026) highlights operational risks. Furthermore, with IRH owning 56%, minority shareholders are along for the rideâliquidity has dried up, and IRH could theoretically delist the company if they want full control.
Fair Value Estimate: 1,750c â 1,900c
Basis: A conservative 8x multiple on expanded earnings (Mpama North + South) at current Tin prices.
Final Rating: BUY (Speculative)
Rationale: The fundamental valuation is compelling (single-digit forward P/E, ~10% yield). However, the illiquidity and DRC location mean this position should be sized carefully. It is an income-generating "risk asset" for a diversified portfolio.