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RESILIENT REIT LIMITED

RES JSE Listed

Investment Analysis: Resilient REIT Limited (JSE: RES)

Date: 9 January 2026 Share Price: ~R80.17 (8,017c) Analyst Role: Senior Equity Analyst, JSE

Step 1: Data Gathering & Source Verification

I have reviewed the most recent financial disclosures and SENS announcements. Resilient follows a December financial year-end.

  • Interim Results: Reviewed the Unaudited Financial Results for the six months ended 30 June 2025 (Released 14 August 2025).
  • Annual Financial Statements: Reviewed the Audited Annual Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2024 (Released 18 March 2025).
  • SENS Activity (L12M): Key announcements include the Pre-close update and revised guidance (2 December 2025), the disposal of Lighthouse Properties shares to fund developments, and consistent director/associate buying in late 2025.

Data Sources:

  • Interim Results (Aug 2025): https://admin.resilient.co.za/pdf_files/1755179292Unaudited%20financial%20results%20and%20declaration%20of%20interim%20dividend.pdf
  • Pre-Close Update (Dec 2025): https://www.resilient.co.za/announcements

Step 2: Metric Extraction

| Metric | Value | Notes | | --- | --- | --- | | Market Cap | ~R29.3 Billion | A "Blue Chip" SA REIT, one of the most valuable by market cap. | | Dividend Yield (L12M) | ~5.83% | Low (for a REIT). Total L12M dividend of 467.00 cents (Interim June 2025: 245.72c + Final Dec 2024: 221.28c). The low yield reflects the stock's premium rating; it is priced for growth, not just income. | | Liquidity Check | Highly Liquid | Average daily value traded consistently exceeds R40m - R50m. No liquidity risk. | | P/E Ratio | ~21.3x | Premium Rating. This is significantly higher than the sector average (~10-12x). The market pays up for Resilient's management track record and asset quality. | | Net Asset Value (NAV) | 6,983 cents | As at 30 June 2025. Crucially, the stock trades at a ~15% PREMIUM to NAV (Price R80.17 vs NAV R69.83). It is one of the few SA REITs trading above its book value. |

Step 3: Operational & Strategic Analysis

Business Overview Resilient owns a portfolio of dominant, high-grade regional malls, predominantly in non-metropolitan areas (e.g., Limpopo, Mpumalanga) where competition is limited.

  • Key Assets: Mall of the North, The Grove Mall, I'langa Mall.
  • Strategic Stakes: Holds a ~27.6% stake in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE), providing exposure to European malls (France/Spain/Portugal). It actively trades this stake to fund local developments.

Performance Trend

  • Growth: Strong. In the June 2025 interims, Comparable Net Property Income (NPI) grew by 8.6%, driven by strong retail sales (+5.2%) and lease renewals (+4.9% uplift).
  • Guidance: In the Dec 2025 pre-close update, management revised FY2025 distribution guidance upwards to ~475 cents per share (implying ~8% growth).
  • Vacancies: Extremely Low. Vacancies stood at 2.3% (June 2025), significantly better than the national average.
  • Energy: The company has aggressively rolled out solar and battery storage, mitigating load-shedding costs and ensuring trading continuity.

Sector Context

  • The "Rural" Advantage: While metros (JHB/CPT) face office oversupply and retail saturation, Resilient's non-metro malls are often the only major shopping destination in their region, granting them pricing power.
  • Interest Rates: As rates come down in 2026, Resilient's cost of debt decreases, further boosting distributable income.

Step 4: The Verdict

Bull Case (Why Buy): Quality Compounder. Resilient is arguably the highest-quality REIT on the JSE. It avoids the "problem sectors" (Offices) entirely. Its ability to grow distributions by ~8% in a tough economy justifies the premium rating. The "offshore buffer" via Lighthouse Properties provides Rand-hedge protection, while the local portfolio dominates its catchment areas. If you want sleep-well-at-night exposure to SA retail, this is it.

Bear Case (Why Sell): Valuation Risk. You are paying R1.15 for R1.00 of assets. With a yield of only ~5.8%, there is no margin of safety. If growth slows to ~4-5% (average inflation), the stock could de-rate sharply to trade in line with peers (i.e., back to NAV or a discount). There is better income value elsewhere (e.g., Redefine at ~7.3% yield).

Fair Value Estimate: R75.00 - R78.00 The stock is currently trading slightly above fair value, pricing in a flawless execution of FY2026 growth.

Final Rating: HOLD / TAKE PROFITS The share price (R80.17) has run hard (+36% over 1 year). While the company is excellent, the valuation is stretched. New money should wait for a pullback to NAV levels (~R70.00).

AI Generated Analysis Last Updated: 2026-01-14