Monumentalist

Investment Analysis: ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI PLC (JSE: ANG)

Date: 10 January 2026 Analyst: Gemini (Senior Equity Analyst) Current Price: ~R1,487.25 (ZAR) / ~$88.64 (USD) JSE Ticker: ANG

Step 1: Data Gathering & Source Verification

Reporting Periods Used:

Interim Results: Q3 2025 Financial Report for the three months and nine months ended 30 September 2025 (Released 11 November 2025).
Annual Financial Statements: Integrated Annual Report for the year ended 31 December 2024 (Released March 2025).
Recent SENS: Review of announcements over the last 12 months, specifically the completion of the Centamin acquisition (Nov 2024) and Q3 2025 dividend declaration.

Source Documentation:

Step 2: Metric Extraction

| Metric | Value | Notes | | --- | --- | --- | | Market Cap | ~R827 Billion | Mega Cap. (Based on ~$46bn USD market cap converted at ~R18.00/USD). It is one of the most valuable listings on the JSE. | | Dividend Yield (L12M) | ~2.8% | Gross Yield. Dividends are declared in USD. L12M payout is approx. 252 US cents (Q4'24: 69c + Q1'25: 12.5c + Q2'25: 80c + Q3'25: 91c). | | Liquidity Check | High | Very liquid. Average daily value traded consistently exceeds R700m. No liquidity risk. | | P/E Ratio | ~20.0x | (Trailing 12 Months). The multiple has expanded due to the sharp rise in the share price, though earnings growth from the gold rally is catching up. | | NAV | N/A | Analysis uses P/E and EV/EBITDA for mining valuation, not NAV. |

Step 3: Operational & Strategic Analysis

Business Overview AngloGold Ashanti is a global gold mining major with a diversified portfolio of operations across Africa, Australia, and the Americas. Crucially, the company completed its redomicile to the UK and primary listing on the NYSE in 2023, and recently finalized the acquisition of Centamin (Nov 2024), adding the Tier 1 Sukari Gold Mine in Egypt to its portfolio. It is no longer a "South African miner" in operational terms, having sold its last SA assets in 2020.

Performance Trend (Q3 2025 vs Prior)

Explosive Growth: The company is capitalizing on the historic gold bull market. Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA rose 109% year-on-year to $1.6bn.
Cash Flow Machine: Free Cash Flow (FCF) for the quarter rocketed 141% to $920m.
Production & Costs: Group production increased 17%, driven by the inclusion of Sukari (Centamin) and operational improvements at Obuasi (Ghana). While costs have risen (AISC up 6% to $1,766/oz), they are well contained relative to the surging gold price (received price ~$3,490/oz).

Sector Context: The "Fear Trade" Rally The Gold Mining sector is currently enjoying a "Goldilocks" scenario. Macroeconomic instability and central bank buying have pushed the gold price to record highs (breaching $3,400/oz in late 2025). Unlike PGM miners who are squeezing margins, Gold miners are seeing pure margin expansion as price increases far outpace cost inflation.

Step 4: The Verdict

Bull Case: The "Supercycle" Winner ANG is the cleanest way to play the gold supercycle on the JSE. The acquisition of Centamin has been immediately accretive, adding high-margin ounces and lowering the group's overall risk profile. With the gold price averaging over $3,400/oz and AISC around $1,766/oz, the company is generating nearly $1,700 of pure margin per ounce. This "printing press" status allows for aggressive deleveraging and substantially higher dividend payouts (now paid quarterly).

Bear Case: Valuation Vertigo The stock has rallied nearly 200% in the last 12 months. It is now priced for perfection. Any correction in the gold price (e.g., if geopolitical tensions ease or US interest rates stay structurally high) would see a sharp de-rating. Furthermore, operating in jurisdictions like Egypt (Sukari), Ghana (Obuasi), and Tanzania (Geita) carries perpetual geopolitical and fiscal stability risks that developed market peers (like Newmont) face to a lesser degree.

Fair Value Estimate R1,350.00 - R1,550.00 (The stock is currently trading near the top end of its fair value range, pricing in sustained gold prices above $3,000/oz).

Final Rating: HOLD Reasoning: AngloGold Ashanti is a fantastic company in a fantastic market, but the easy money has been made. The share price (c. R1,487) fully reflects the current gold boom and the Centamin success. While I would not sell a winner during a supercycle, new capital should wait for a pullback. The risk/reward ratio at these all-time highs is balanced, not compelling.