Monumentalist

Investment Analysis: ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV (JSE: ANH)

Date: 10 January 2026 Analyst: Gemini (Senior Equity Analyst) Current Price: ~R1,087.32 JSE Ticker: ANH

Step 1: Data Gathering & Source Verification

Reporting Periods Used:

Interim Results: Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results (Released 30 October 2025).
Annual Financial Statements: Annual Report 2024 (Released 26 February 2025).
Recent SENS: Review of share buyback progress updates (Dec 2025/Jan 2026) and Dividend Declaration (Oct 2025).

Source Documentation:

Step 2: Metric Extraction

| Metric | Value | Notes | | --- | --- | --- | | Market Cap | ~R1.95 Trillion | Mega Cap. The largest company by value on the JSE (though primarily listed in Belgium). | | Dividend Yield (L12M) | ~2.1% - 2.2% | Based on â¬1.15 total payout (Final 2024: â¬1.00 + Interim 2025: â¬0.15). Dividends are declared in EUR; yield fluctuates with the ZAR/EUR exchange rate. | | Liquidity Check | High | Primary liquidity is in Brussels/NYSE, but JSE liquidity is robust. Average daily value traded consistently exceeds R300m. No liquidity risk. | | P/E Ratio | 16.3x | (Trailing 12 Months). Valuation has compressed slightly as earnings held up despite volume pressures. Trading below its 5-year average of ~18-20x. | | NAV | N/A | Valued on EV/EBITDA and P/E metrics. |

Step 3: Operational & Strategic Analysis

Business Overview AB InBev is the worldâs undisputed brewing giant, controlling ~28% of the global beer market. Its portfolio includes global "megabrands" (Budweiser, Corona, Stella Artois) and local champions (Castle, Carling Black Label). The strategy hinges on "Premiumization" (convincing drinkers to trade up to more expensive brands) and massive economies of scale.

Performance Trend (Q3 2025 vs Prior)

Price vs. Volume Divergence: The Q3 2025 results highlight a concerning trend: Revenue grew (+0.9%) and EBITDA grew (+3.3%), but Volumes fell significantly (-3.7%).
The "Premium" Shield: The company successfully offset the volume drop by raising prices and selling higher-margin products (Revenue per hectoliter +4.8%). This demonstrates immense pricing power, but relying solely on price hikes to drive growth is not sustainable long-term.
Deleveraging & Returns: A major positive was the announcement of a $6 billion share buyback program (Oct 2025), signaling management believes the balance sheet is finally healthy enough to return serious cash to shareholders.

Sector Context: The "Sobering" Consumer The Global FMCG/Alcohol sector is facing "volume fatigue." After years of inflation-driven price hikes, consumers in key markets (US, China, and even South Africa) are cutting back on consumption frequency. In South Africa specifically, while premium beer (Stella, Corona) is growing, the mainstream segment (Carling, Castle) remains under pressure from high interest rates and competition from affordable spirits/ciders.

Step 4: The Verdict

Bull Case: The Cash Flow Machine AB InBev is a defensive fortress. Even with falling volumes, it expanded EBITDA margins by 85bps to 37.0% in Q3. The new $6bn share buyback provides a massive floor under the share price. If the global economy achieves a "soft landing" and volumes stabilize, the combination of operational leverage and share repurchases will drive double-digit EPS growth.

Bear Case: Volume "Red Flag" You cannot shrink your way to greatness indefinitely. A 3.7% volume decline is alarming. Weakness in China (economic slowdown) and the US (lingering market share loss) suggests the "premiumization" lever might be pulled too tight. If consumers trade down instead of up due to recession fears, AB InBev's high-margin thesis unravels.

Fair Value Estimate R1,150.00 - R1,250.00 (Valued at ~10-11x EV/EBITDA).

Final Rating: HOLD Reasoning: The $6bn buyback is a strong signal, but the underlying business is currently selling less product every quarter. Until volume growth returns to positive territory (or at least flatlines), the upside is capped. The stock is a safe "park" for capital given the buyback support, but it lacks the organic growth engine to justify a "Buy" rating right now.