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THARISA PLC

THA JSE Listed
Market Cap
R8.28 Billion

Investment Analysis: Tharisa plc (JSE: THA)

Date: 14 January 2026 Analyst: Senior Equity Desk, JSE

Step 1: Data Gathering & Source Verification

I have utilized the most recent financial disclosures available as of January 2026, including the production update released yesterday.

  • Q1 FY2026 Production Report (Period Ended 31 Dec 2025): Released 13 January 2026.

  • Source File: Production Report Q1 FY2026

  • Annual Financial Results (Year Ended 30 Sep 2025): Released 01 December 2025.

  • Source File: Annual Results Announcement FY2025

  • Key SENS Activity (L12M):

  • 13 Jan 2026: Q1 Production Report (Soft volumes due to weather, but PGM basket price surged to $2,208/oz).
  • 01 Dec 2025: FY2025 Results & Dividend Declaration (Dividend cut to US 1.5 cents final).
  • Oct 2025: Announcement of transition to underground mining at Tharisa Mine.

Step 2: Metric Extraction

  • Market Cap: R8.28 Billion

  • Calculated as: ~302.6m shares in issue × R27.57 share price.

  • Dividend Yield (L12M): ~1.9% - 2.0%

  • Gross Dividend: 3.0 US cents per share for FY2025 (Interim 1.5c + Final 1.5c).

  • Note: Dividends were cut by 33% compared to FY2024 (4.5 US cents) as the company preserves cash for the Karo project and underground transition.

  • Liquidity Check: Moderate (Pass)

  • Average Daily Volume: Varies, typically 50,000 – 100,000 shares.

  • Status: Liquid enough for retail investors, but large institutional blocks may require care. Dual listing on LSE adds arbitrage liquidity.

  • P/E Ratio: ~6.3x

  • Calculation: Price (R27.57) / Earnings. (FY2025 Basic EPS was 26.7 US cents; approx R4.80 at current exchange rates).

  • Comment: Trading at a deep discount relative to the broader market, though typical for small-cap miners with jurisdiction risk.

  • Net Asset Value (NAV): ~R50.00+ per share (implied)

  • Price-to-Book: 0.54x.
  • Context: The stock trades at roughly half of its book value.

Step 3: Operational & Strategic Analysis

Business Overview Tharisa is a co-producer of PGMs (Platinum Group Metals) and Chrome concentrates from a single open-pit mine (Tharisa Mine) in the Bushveld Complex, South Africa.

  • Strategic Pivot: The company is currently transitioning the Tharisa mine from open-pit to underground (extending life of mine) and developing the Karo Platinum Project in Zimbabwe.

Performance Trend (Q1 FY2026 & FY2025 vs FY2024)

  • Production Volumes: Contracting.
  • FY2025: PGM output fell 4.7% (138.3 koz) and Chrome fell 8.2% (1.56 Mt).

  • Q1 FY2026 (Latest): Production remained soft due to severe weather and pit sequencing. Reef mined dropped 16.7% quarter-on-quarter.

  • Price Environment: Diverging sharply.

  • PGMs (Bullish): The PGM basket price has surged. In FY2025 it averaged $1,615/oz, but in Q1 FY2026 it jumped to $2,208/oz (+36%).

  • Chrome (Bearish/Stable): Chrome prices have cooled from their highs, averaging $276/t in Q1 FY2026 (down from ~$299/t peaks in 2024).

  • Financial Health: Revenue in FY2025 dipped 16% to $602m. However, net cash remains positive at $47m (though down from $68m in Sep 2025) as capital is deployed into the Karo project.

Sector Context

  • Macro Factor: The PGM Supply Deficit. While electric vehicles (EVs) threaten long-term PGM demand, the current market is in deficit because major shafts in South Africa (Sibanye/Impala) are closing due to unprofitability. This supply crunch has spiked PGM basket prices recently, benefiting low-cost producers like Tharisa who are still profitable.

Step 4: The Verdict

Bull Case (Buy Rationale) The Pricing Windfall & Deep Discount. You are buying a profitable miner at a P/E of ~6x and half its book value (P/B 0.54). The market is pricing Tharisa as if PGM prices are dead, yet the Q1 report shows a basket price of $2,208/oz—a massive jump that will flow directly to the bottom line in H1 2026. If they hit their recovery guidance of 145-165 koz, cash flow will surge.

Bear Case (Sell Rationale) The Zimbabwe Risk (Karo) & Operational Hiccups. The Karo Platinum Project in Zimbabwe is a massive capital drain ($32m spent recently) in a high-risk jurisdiction. Investors are wary of "project execution risk." Additionally, the consistent drop in production volumes (mining "sequencing issues") raises concerns that the open pit is becoming harder to mine before the underground section is ready.

Fair Value Estimate R38.00 – R42.00

  • Methodology: Re-rating to a conservative 0.75x Price-to-Book (still a discount to NAV) given the recovering PGM basket price.
AI Generated Analysis Last Updated: 2026-01-14