Monumentalist

Role: Senior Equity Analyst (JSE Focus) Date: 12 January 2026 Subject: Investment Analysis â B2Gold Corporation (JSE: BTO)

Step 1: Data Gathering & Source Verification

I have utilized the following primary sources for this analysis, ensuring the most recent reporting periods available as of January 2026 are reflected.

Latest Interim Results: Third Quarter Results for the period ended 30 September 2025 (Released 5 Nov 2025).
Source: B2Gold Q3 2025 Results Announcement
Latest Annual Results: Annual Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2024.
Source: B2Gold 2024 Annual Report
SENS Announcements: Reviewed period January 2025 â January 2026.
Key Focus: Dividend declaration (Nov 2025), Goose Project Update (Nov 2025), Mali Mining Code Compliance (Aug 2025).

Step 2: Metric Extraction

Market Cap: ~R112.5 Billion (USD 6.11 Billion)

Note: As a secondary listing, B2Goldâs primary valuation is in USD/CAD. ZAR value derived from current exchange rate (~R18.40/USD).

Dividend Yield (L12M): 1.8%

Calculation: Total dividends declared in L12M is $0.08 per share (paid quarterly at $0.02/share).
Context: B2Gold pays in US Dollars; SA investors receive the ZAR equivalent. The yield is modest as the company heavily reinvests cash into the Goose Project construction.

Liquidity Check: Pass (Moderate to High)

Assessment: While the primary liquidity resides on the TSX (Canada) and NYSE (USA), the JSE listing sees sufficient arbitrage volume (Average Daily Value ~R25m - R40m) for retail and mid-sized institutional entry.

P/E Ratio: 8.2x (Adjusted Forward)

Calculation: Based on Q3 2025 Adjusted EPS of $0.14 ($0.56 annualized) and share price of ~$4.57.
Note: Statutory P/E is skewed by impairment reversals/charges. The Adjusted P/E reflects the true operating profitability of the core mines (Fekola, Masbate, Otjikoto).

Net Asset Value (NAV): N/A

Reason: Mining companies are valued on Earnings, Cash Flow (AISC margins), and Reserves (oz), not Book Value.

Step 3: Operational & Strategic Analysis

Business Overview

B2Gold is a low-cost international senior gold producer. Its portfolio is shifting:

Core Cash Cows: Fekola (Mali), Masbate (Philippines), and Otjikoto (Namibia).
Growth Engine: Goose Project (Nunavut, Canada). This is the company's future flagship, designed to produce ~300k oz/year in a tier-1 jurisdiction.

Performance Trend (Q3 2025 Update)

The company is in a transformational "Capex Peak" phase.

Revenue Surge: Q3 Revenue rose 74.6% YoY to $783M, driven by higher realized gold prices ($3,133/oz).
Margin Expansion: Cash operating costs dropped to $781/oz (from $1,061/oz in Q3 '24). This is a bullish signal that B2Gold is controlling inflation better than peers.
The "Hiccup": The Goose Project (Canada) poured its first gold in June 2025, but guidance was trimmed in Nov 2025 due to crushing plant issues. This is a classic "teething problem" for new mines but has dampened short-term sentiment.

Sector Context: The "Safe Haven" Bid & Geopolitics

Gold miners in 2025/26 are benefitting from record gold prices ($3,000+ levels).

Macro Factor: Central Bank buying (China/Poland/India) has put a floor under the gold price.
Mali Risk: The new Mali Mining Code (2023/24) created uncertainty for Fekola. However, B2Gold successfully negotiated terms in August 2025 to start underground mining, signalling that the Malian junta is pragmatic about keeping tax revenues flowing.

Step 4: The Verdict

Bull Case: The "Goose" Re-Rate

The market is currently punishing B2Gold for the startup delays at the Goose mine. Once this mine reaches commercial production (expected full ramp-up early 2026), B2Gold transforms from a "risky African miner" (Mali exposure) to a "premium Canadian miner" (Nunavut exposure). This should trigger a multiple re-rating from 8x P/E closer to the 15x P/E commanded by peers like Agnico Eagle.

Bear Case: The Mali Concentration Risk

Despite recent agreements, Mali remains a volatile jurisdiction (coups, Wagner group presence). Fekola still generates a massive portion of the group's free cash flow. If the Malian government demands a larger stake or halts operations (as seen with other miners in the Sahel), the stock would crash regardless of the Canadian project's success.

Fair Value Estimate

R100.00 â R110.00 (ZAR Equivalent)

Methodology: Based on a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation, accrediting full value to the Goose Project reserves and applying a discount rate of 5% for developed assets and 12% for Mali assets.
Upside: Approximately 20-30% upside from current levels (~R83.00).

Final Rating: BUY

Rationale: The risk/reward is highly attractive. You are effectively buying a high-quality Canadian gold mine (Goose) at a discount because of the "Mali discount." With the gold price above $3,000/oz and costs falling, B2Gold is a cash machine. The operational issues at Goose are temporary; the asset quality is permanent. Buy before the re-rating occurs later in 2026.

B2GOLD CORPORATION