Monumentalist

Investment Analysis: AFRICA BITCOIN CORPORATION LIMITED (JSE: BAC)

Date: 9 January 2026 Analyst: [Gemini]

Step 1: Data Gathering & Source Verification

Reporting Period: Interim Results for the 6 months ended 31 August 2025 (Published 2 October 2025).
SENS Announcements Reviewed (L12M):
Changes to the Board and Board Committees (15 Dec 2025)
Appointment of Bitcoin Strategic Advisor, Dr. Saifedean Ammous (8 Dec 2025)
Admission to Secondary Trading Venue on BÃ¶rse Frankfurt (30 Nov 2025)
Acquisition of Bitcoin (Multiple announcements: Nov 2025)
Name Change Finalisation: Altvest Capital to Africa Bitcoin Corporation (Sep 2025)

Step 2: Metric Extraction

Market Cap: R125.05 million (Small Cap)
Based on a share price of 1,100c (R11.00).
Dividend Yield (L12M): N/A (0.0%)
Reason: No dividends have been declared in the last 12 months. The company is in a growth/accumulation phase, prioritizing Bitcoin acquisition over cash distribution.
Liquidity Check: High Risk / Illiquid
Average Daily Volume (30D): ~2,000 - 3,000 shares.
Flag: Trading is extremely thin. Large orders will significantly impact the share price (slippage risk).
P/E Ratio: 1.5x - 2.8x
Calculation: Price (1,100c) / Interim HEPS annualized (approx. 388c) or TTM HEPS (726c as per some data sources).
Note: This low P/E is likely distorted by fair value adjustments on Bitcoin holdings rather than operating cash flow.
Net Asset Value (NAV): 1,340 cents per share (as of 31 Aug 2025)
Price-to-NAV: 0.82x (Trading at an 18% discount to NAV).

Step 3: Operational & Strategic Analysis

Business Overview Africa Bitcoin Corporation (formerly Altvest Capital) has pivoted to become Africa's first "Bitcoin Treasury Company" (similar to the MicroStrategy model). It operates on a dual-pillar strategy:

Bitcoin Treasury: Using equity and debt raises to systematically accumulate Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset.
SME Funding (Legacy): Continuing its original mandate of providing private credit and equity funding to South African SMEs (via the Altvest Credit Opportunities Fund).

Performance Trend (Interim Aug 2025 vs Aug 2024)

Revenue: Expanded significantly to R7.7 million (up 156% from R3.0 million).
Profitability: Turnaround. Reported a profit of R21.4 million (vs. a loss of R6.2 million in the prior period).
Driver: This swing is driven largely by fair value gains on the Bitcoin treasury assets rather than purely operational lending income.
Momentum: The successful rebrand and secondary listings (Frankfurt, OTCQB) indicate aggressive expansion of their capital-raising capabilities.

Sector Context

Macro Factor (Crypto/Financials): Institutional Bitcoin Adoption. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs globally and the "Bitcoin Standard" narrative are driving re-ratings for companies holding BTC on balance sheets. Locally, the FSCA's regulatory framework for crypto assets is maturing, reducing existential regulatory risk for the company.

Step 4: The Verdict

Bull Case (The Upside): Leveraged Bitcoin Exposure at a Discount. You are effectively buying a portfolio of Bitcoin and SME loans for 82 cents on the Rand (18% discount to NAV). If Bitcoin prices appreciate, the companyâs NAV expands rapidly, potentially closing the discount gap and offering outsized returns compared to holding spot BTC.
Bear Case (The Downside): Liquidity Trap & Key Man Risk. The stock is highly illiquid; exiting a meaningful position could take weeks without crashing the price. Furthermore, the valuation is entirely tethered to the volatile price of Bitcoinâa 20% drop in BTC could wipe out the company's equity premium and push it back into a discount trap.
Fair Value Estimate: 1,340c - 1,500c
Base: Current NAV (1,340c).
Premium: A slight premium (10-15%) is warranted if they successfully execute the "Bitcoin yield" strategy (issuing debt to buy BTC), but currently, the discount to NAV persists.
Final Rating: SPECULATIVE BUY
Rationale: This is not a traditional compounder; it is a high-risk proxy for Bitcoin adoption in Africa. Buy only if you are bullish on Bitcoin and willing to tolerate significant volatility and illiquidity.